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Based upon a variety of assumptions, which are outlined in more detail below, we estimate that future metal production from polymetallic nodules will be as follows:

This diagram estimates total annual metal production from polymetallic nodules, assuming mining licenses are issued in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone and the Cook Islands EEZ within reasonable timeframes, as outlined in exploration license submissions from the various Operators

Clearly there is great uncertainty around deep-sea mining, regulations, technological progress and speed of issuing mining licenses. This should be regarded as a rough indicative estimate at best.

Assumptions Made:

• Average annual mine site production is 2,500,000 dry tonnes / year per mine site (per "Critical metals in manganese nodules from the Cook Islands EEZ, abundances and distributions", Hein et al, 2014)
• Polymetallic Nodule compositions vary significantly between the CCZ and CI EEZ, but their average metal composition in each region is relatively homogeneous and is outlined in the nodule composition table below.
• Mine site operations start as follows:
  1. The Metals Company starts NORI operations in 2026
  2. The Metals Company starts TOML operations in 2030
  3. GSR starts CCZ operations in 2028
  4. Beijing Pioneer starts CCZ operations in 2029
  5. China Minmetals or COMRA start CCZ operations in 2030
  6. Another operator starts CCZ operations in 2032
  7. Cook Islands EEZ operations start in 2028, with one new mine site starting in 2028, 2029 and 2030
• Mine sites production ramps up, with 50% of their average annual production in their first year, then 100% each subsequent year
• Manganese, Cobalt, Copper and Nickel are the only metals produced, with 90% recovery rates

Average Nodule Composition:

We assume that nodule composition across the Clarion-Clipperton Zone and across the Cook Islands EEZ is relatively homogeneous. This assumption is supported by the areally broad set of datapoints that are available for each region. However, the two regions vary significantly in their metal compositions (notably, that the CI EEZ is more Cobalt-rich), and so we have used a different set of metal composition figures for each region:

We assumed that Operators will focus on production of the 4 main metals of Manganese, Copper, Cobalt and Nickel. This is based upon public statements made by The Metals Company around their proposed processing and refining processes.

It should be noted that both the CCZ and CI EEZ contain meaningful volumes of other valuable and critial metals, including Titanium, REYs, Iron and Molybdenum, and that processing methods will likely improve to recover these as well. Our article on the relative composition of nodules in the CCZ verus the Cook Islands can provide more detailed information here.

Processing and refining methods for polymetallic nodules have not been finalised and refined, and so we have made a relatively coarse assumption of 90% metal recovery across all metal types. This is likely to be a conservative underestimate, as processes will improve with experience, and yields will increase.

Annual Metal Production:

Polymetallic nodules in both the Clarion-Clipperton Zone and the Cook Islands EEZ contain large amounts of Manganese (typically 17 or 28%), whilst other metal grades are typically in the range of 0.4% to 1.5%. Whilst the latter grades are meaningful, it nevertheless means that metal production is dominated by large volumes of Manganese, as seen below:

Relative Metal Production:

To put these metal volumes into context, we compared the projections to the estimated metal productions for 2022, as reported by the USGS, specifically:

The results of this analyis are surprising, namely, that the projections of production of Cobalt and Manganese from polymetallic nodules in 2034 are around 25-30% of total worldwide production as of 2022.

We assume that metal demand and metal production will continue to rise for all the metals listed, but the potential relative production of these metals from so few mine sites is surprising.

Relative Metal Value:

There are major differences between the value of the main 4 metals present in polymetallic nodules. Taking approximate average values per tonne, we were able to project approximate revenues by metal type:

Nickel dominates the value, followed by Cobalt and Copper. Despite the huge volumes mined, the Manganese component is comparatively worthless:

Source Model in Excel: